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How Many More Times Will You See Cherry Blossoms?

From your age and sex, estimate how many more times you will see cherry blossoms, based on Japanese life tables. Also shows your odds of being alive in 5 or 10 years.

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Estimates how many more times you will see cherry blossoms, based on your age and sex. It uses Japanese life tables (survival rates), so it is a statistical guide.

yrs
Sex
times / yr

How often you go blossom viewing. Leave it at 1 for once a year.

Result

Times you will still see cherry blossoms

about 55

With 50% probability you will see them at least 58 more times

Life expectancy

55.4 yrs

Times per year

1 / yr


Probability of being alive that year

In 5 years

99.8%

In 10 years

99.5%

In 20 years

98.3%

In 30 years

95.9%

How it works

  • The expected count adds up the probability that you are alive in year 1, year 2, and so on. Because staying alive is a probability, the result is slightly lower than simply multiplying life expectancy by once a year.
  • Survival rates come from the number of survivors (lx) in Japan's abridged life tables, held every 5 years and interpolated log-linearly. Real figures vary by year and by individual health.
  • The 50 percent figure counts the years until your probability of being alive drops below one half. Because early deaths pull the average down, this can be larger than the expected count.
  • If you see the blossoms two or three times a year, the count scales up in proportion. Change the frequency if you go blossom viewing more than once.
  • This tool is a statistical guide, not a prediction of any individual's lifespan. Do not use it to judge your health.

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